Opportunity Information: Apply for 09HQPA0060
Apply for 09HQPA0060
- The Geological Survey in the science and technology and other research and development sector is offering a public funding opportunity titled "Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit, Colorado Plateau CESU" and is now available to receive applicants.
- Interested and eligible applicants and submit their applications by referencing the CFDA number(s): 15.808 U.S. Geological Survey Research and Data Collection.
- This funding opportunity was created on Aug 12, 2009 and posted on Jul 29, 2009.
- Applicants must submit their applications by Aug 19, 2009. (Agency may still review applications by suitable applicants for the remaining/unused allocated funding in 2026.)
- The funding agency has allocated a total of $35,000.00 to eligible and selected applicants.
- The number of recipients for this funding is limited to 1 candidate(s).
- Eligible applicants include: Others (see text field entitled Additional Information on Eligibility for clarification).
- This financial assistance opportunity is being issued under a Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit (CESU) Program. CESU s are partnerships that provide research, technical assistance, and education. Eligible recipients must be a participating partner of the Colorado Plateau Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit (CESU) Program.
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Opportunity Summary:
The Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit, Colorado Plateau CESU grant opportunity (Funding Opportunity Number 09HQPA0060) is a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) discretionary research funding announcement focused on improving how communities and planners anticipate land development. The core purpose of the project is to quantify and model the likelihood that currently vacant or agricultural land will convert to a more intensive, developed land use. The end product is meant to be practical: a set of equations and a usable modeling approach that local decision makers can apply to better understand, compare, and forecast land development choices.
The research objective is framed around building a probability-based land use change model with both a snapshot and a time-based component. First, the project calls for estimating a static (at-a-point-in-time) probability of land conversion using econometric methods, specifically qualitative response regression. In practice, this typically means using models designed for binary or categorical outcomes (for example, whether a parcel converts to development or not), and relating that outcome to measurable predictors such as location, land characteristics, market signals, and policy constraints. Second, the opportunity asks that the initial, static probability be paired with a dynamic conditional probability method, explicitly suggesting Markov Chain approaches. One highlighted idea is estimating the "time of first passage" to a developed state, which is a way of modeling not just whether conversion might happen, but when it becomes likely, allowing probabilities to evolve over time rather than remaining fixed.
A key emphasis of the announcement is incorporating real-world drivers of development pressure and policy shifts into the probability model. The opportunity specifically mentions analyzing how expanding an urban development boundary affects conversion likelihood, which implies attention to planning decisions and growth management policies that can instantly change expectations and land values. It also calls for incorporating repeat sales information, which can serve as a proxy for changing market conditions, speculative activity, or price appreciation patterns that often precede development. In addition, the project is expected to include "other amenities" as explanatory factors, recognizing that proximity to desirable features (such as transportation access, employment centers, recreation, views, or services) can materially influence where development occurs. Together, these factors are intended to make the resulting model more realistic and more useful for policy and planning scenarios.
From a public benefit perspective, the grant is aimed at producing an analytic tool that helps local and regional decision makers visualize and evaluate land development decisions. By translating market signals and policy variables into estimated conversion probabilities over time, the model can support planning efforts such as assessing the potential consequences of boundary expansions, anticipating infrastructure demand, identifying areas at higher risk of rapid conversion, or evaluating conservation and farmland protection strategies. The overall goal is not simply academic analysis, but an applied decision-support framework that can inform land use planning with defensible, data-driven estimates.
Administratively, this opportunity was issued as either a cooperative agreement or a grant under the CESU framework, within the Science and Technology and other Research and Development funding activity category. The expected number of awards was one, with an estimated total funding amount of $35,000. There was no cost sharing or matching requirement noted. The CFDA number associated with the program is 15.808 (U.S. Geological Survey Research and Data Collection). The posting date was July 29, 2009, with the original closing date listed as August 7, 2009, later extended to a current closing date of August 19, 2009, and an archive date of September 6, 2009. Unlike many opportunities that list explicit award floors or ceilings, both were shown as zero here, which commonly indicates that the funding amount is addressed through the total estimate and project-specific negotiations rather than fixed bounds in the listing.
Eligibility is restricted by the CESU partnership structure. Only organizations that are participating partners in the Colorado Plateau Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit (CESU) Program are eligible to apply. CESUs are collaborative partnerships designed to support research, technical assistance, and education, typically connecting federal agencies with universities and other partners to carry out mission-relevant science. In other words, the opportunity is not broadly open to the general public or all institutions; it is intended for entities already affiliated with the Colorado Plateau CESU network.
For access issues or administrative questions related to the full announcement, the listed contact is Faith Graves, Contract Specialist, reachable by phone at 703-648-7356.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1) What is this funding opportunity?
This is a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) discretionary research funding announcement under the Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit (CESU) framework for the Colorado Plateau CESU. The Funding Opportunity Number is 09HQPA0060.
2) What is the main purpose of the project?
The project is designed to improve how communities and planners anticipate land development by quantifying and modeling the likelihood that currently vacant or agricultural land will convert to a more intensive, developed land use.
3) What is the expected end product or deliverable?
The announcement emphasizes a practical end product: a set of equations and a usable modeling approach that local decision makers can apply to understand, compare, and forecast land development choices.
4) What research approach is the opportunity asking for?
The objective is to build a probability-based land use change model with two components:
- A static (point-in-time) probability of land conversion estimated using econometric methods, specifically qualitative response regression.
- A dynamic conditional probability method to add a time-based element, with Markov Chain approaches explicitly suggested.
5) What does "static probability" mean in this announcement?
It refers to estimating the probability of land conversion at a single point in time using econometric techniques suited to binary or categorical outcomes (for example, whether a parcel converts to development or not), based on measurable predictors.
6) What does "qualitative response regression" refer to here?
The announcement describes it as an econometric approach typically used for outcomes that are binary or categorical, such as whether land converts to development. The model relates that outcome to predictors like location, land characteristics, market signals, and policy constraints.
7) What is the dynamic component expected to do?
The dynamic component is intended to model how conversion probabilities evolve over time, rather than staying fixed. The announcement explicitly suggests Markov Chain approaches and highlights the concept of estimating the "time of first passage" to a developed state (modeling not just whether conversion might happen, but when it becomes likely).
8) What kinds of predictors or drivers should be included in the model?
The announcement emphasizes incorporating real-world drivers of development pressure and policy shifts. Examples specifically mentioned include:
- Changes to an urban development boundary (such as expansion) and how that affects conversion likelihood
- Repeat sales information as an indicator of changing market conditions, speculative activity, or price appreciation patterns
- "Other amenities" as explanatory factors (recognizing that proximity to desirable features can influence development)
9) Why does the announcement mention an urban development boundary?
It highlights the need to analyze how a planning decision like expanding an urban development boundary can change conversion likelihood. The implication is that policy decisions and growth management tools can rapidly alter expectations and land values, which should be reflected in the probability model.
10) What is meant by "repeat sales information" in this context?
Repeat sales information is described as a useful input because it can serve as a proxy for changing market conditions, speculative activity, or price appreciation patterns that often occur before development.
11) What are "other amenities" according to the announcement?
The opportunity uses the term to indicate that the model should consider amenity-related factors that influence development patterns. The announcement does not provide a fixed list, but it notes that proximity to desirable features can materially influence where development occurs.
12) Who is expected to benefit from the work?
The intended public benefit is an analytic tool that helps local and regional decision makers visualize and evaluate land development decisions. By translating market signals and policy variables into estimated conversion probabilities over time, the model can support planning and scenario evaluation.
13) What types of planning questions could this tool help address?
The announcement indicates the model can support planning efforts such as:
- Assessing potential consequences of boundary expansions
- Anticipating infrastructure demand
- Identifying areas at higher risk of rapid conversion
- Evaluating conservation and farmland protection strategies
14) Is this opportunity intended to be purely academic research?
No. While it is a research funding opportunity, the announcement stresses applied outcomes: an operational, decision-support framework with defensible, data-driven estimates that planners and local decision makers can use.
15) What funding instrument will be used?
The opportunity was issued as either a cooperative agreement or a grant under the CESU framework.
16) What is the funding activity category?
The listing places it within the Science and Technology and other Research and Development funding activity category.
17) How many awards are expected?
The expected number of awards is one.
18) What is the estimated total funding amount?
The estimated total funding amount is $35,000.
19) Is cost sharing or matching required?
No cost sharing or matching requirement is noted in the provided information.
20) What is the CFDA number for this opportunity?
The CFDA number associated with the program is 15.808 (U.S. Geological Survey Research and Data Collection).
21) What are the key dates for the opportunity?
- Posting date: July 29, 2009
- Original closing date: August 7, 2009
- Extended/current closing date: August 19, 2009
- Archive date: September 6, 2009
22) Why do the award floor and ceiling show as zero?
The listing shows both the award floor and ceiling as zero. As described in the provided information, this commonly indicates the funding amount is handled through the overall total estimate and project-specific negotiations rather than fixed minimum/maximum award bounds in the listing.
23) Who is eligible to apply?
Eligibility is restricted. Only organizations that are participating partners in the Colorado Plateau Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit (CESU) Program are eligible to apply.
24) Is this opportunity open to the general public or any institution?
No. The opportunity is not broadly open; it is intended for entities already affiliated with the Colorado Plateau CESU network.
25) What is a CESU in the context of this opportunity?
CESUs are collaborative partnerships designed to support research, technical assistance, and education, typically connecting federal agencies with universities and other partners to carry out mission-relevant science. This opportunity is restricted to partners within the Colorado Plateau CESU.
26) Who is the listed contact for access issues or administrative questions?
The listed contact is Faith Graves, Contract Specialist. Phone: 703-648-7356.
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