Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit, Rocky Mountain CESU | Apply Online

Opportunity Summary:

This funding opportunity (G14AS00045), titled "Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit, Rocky Mountain CESU," is a US Geological Survey (USGS) cooperative agreement intended to support research on the cascading, system-wide impacts of a major earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area. The work centers on a magnitude 7.0 rupture involving both the northern and southern segments of the Hayward Fault, with an emphasis on what happens beyond the initial shaking and damage. The goal is to better understand how an urban region experiences knock-on failures across critical infrastructure and services, how those failures interact, and what that means for planning, response, and long-term recovery.

The project is framed around the HayWired disaster scenario, an effort led through SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) during 2014 and 2015. HayWired builds on earlier Hayward Fault earthquake studies and previous USGS scenario methods, but it goes further by explicitly focusing on interdependencies and the way one disruption can trigger others. A key theme is that modern metropolitan areas function as tightly coupled networks: power, water, transportation, communications, fuel supply, emergency services, and finance rely on one another, so damage in one place can produce outsized consequences elsewhere. The scenario is designed to surface those relationships in a structured way that decision-makers can use.

Methodologically, the opportunity highlights the use of decision analysis tools, specifically influence diagrams and Bayesian network analysis, as ways to represent uncertainty, dependencies, and chains of cause and effect. These tools are meant to support practical risk analysis and improve disaster planning by helping agencies and utilities test assumptions, compare strategies, and identify the most effective interventions before an event occurs. The announcement also points to a "system of systems" approach to quantify damage and recovery for interdependent lifeline infrastructure, which signals an emphasis on modeling not just physical damage, but restoration timelines and how restoration in one sector is constrained by delays in another.

Another distinctive element is the long-term lens. HayWired is described as looking forward decades to examine how modern building code philosophy affects the viability of a metropolis after a large earthquake. In practice, that implies examining questions such as whether current design and retrofit approaches meaningfully reduce downtime and displacement, how performance-based objectives translate into community resilience, and what the economic and social implications are when large numbers of buildings may technically avoid collapse but still be unusable for extended periods.

The USGS also emphasizes partnership and real-world applicability. As with prior MHDP/SAFRR scenarios, the agency intends to work with a variety of other organizations to explore high-consequence issues for an urban earthquake, including the impacts on the digital economy and options to reduce vulnerability. That focus reflects how economic activity and essential services increasingly depend on communications networks, data centers, electronic payments, and interconnected supply chains, all of which can be disrupted by power outages, fiber breaks, transportation interruptions, and workforce displacement.

From an administrative standpoint, this was a discretionary funding opportunity using a cooperative agreement instrument, under CFDA 15.808 (USGS Research and Data Collection). USGS expected to make one award with an estimated total funding amount of $100,000. The notice lists no cost sharing or matching requirement, and it does not specify an award floor or ceiling (both shown as 0), which typically means applicants should rely on the announced total funding and any project-specific guidance in the full announcement. The opportunity was posted March 18, 2014, with a closing date of March 28, 2014, and it was archived June 18, 2014.

Eligibility is limited to organizations that are official partners in the Rocky Mountains Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit (ROMO CESU) Program. CESUs are collaborative partnerships designed to provide research, technical assistance, and education, and this announcement is issued under that umbrella, meaning the recipient must already be part of the ROMO CESU network to apply. For access issues or further details, the listed contact was Faith Graves at USGS (703-648-7356, fgraves@usgs.gov), and the announcement was distributed through Grants.gov.

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