Opportunity Information: Apply for 12 522
Apply for 12 522
- The National Science Foundation in the science and technology and other research and development sector is offering a public funding opportunity titled "Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction using Earth System Models" and is now available to receive applicants.
- Interested and eligible applicants and submit their applications by referencing the CFDA number(s): 10.310 Agriculture and Food Research Initiative (AFRI) 47.041 Engineering Grants 47.049 Mathematical and Physical Sciences 47.050 Geosciences 47.070 Computer and Information Science and Engineering 47.074 Biological Sciences 47.075 Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences 47.076 Education and Human Resources 47.078 Polar Programs 47.079 Office of International Science and Engineering 47.080 Office of Cyberinfrastructure 47.081 Office of Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research.
- This funding opportunity was created on Jan 18, 2012 and posted on Dec 23, 2011.
- Applicants must submit their applications by May 11, 2012 Full Proposal Deadline(s) May 11, 2012. (Agency may still review applications by suitable applicants for the remaining/unused allocated funding in 2026.)
- The funding agency has allocated a total of $39,000,000.00 to eligible and selected applicants.
- Each selected applicant is eligible to receive up to $5,000,000.00 in funding.
- The number of recipients for this funding is limited to 12 candidate(s).
- Eligible applicants include: Others (see text field entitled Additional Information on Eligibility for clarification).
- Organization Limit Proposals may only be submitted by the following For profit organizations U.S. commercial organizations, especially small businesses with strong capabilities in scientific or engineering research or education. Non profit, non academic organizations Independent museums, observatories, research labs, professional societies and similar organizations in the U.S. associated with educational or research activities. Other Federal Agencies and Federally Funded Research and Development Centers (FFRDCs) Contact the appropriate program before preparing a proposal for submission. Universities and Colleges Universities and two and four year colleges (including community colleges) accredited in, and having a campus located in the US, acting on behalf of their faculty members. Such organizations also are referred to as academic institutions. PI Limit PIs from NSF funded FFRDCs may submit proposals to this competition. Projects involving USDA or DOE FFRDCs will only be considered for co funding by NSF if they are collaborative effortsthat includenon federally funded institutions. To facilitate possible interagency funding of such collaboratives, an institution other than the USDA or DOE FFRDC mustserve as the lead institution. This is necessitated solely by NSF rules for funding collaborative grants and should not be construed as a comment on capability or leadership. It is anticipated that DOE lab scientists whose projects are recommended for funding would be funded by DOE. USDA research laboratories submitting proposals as the lead institution will only be considered for funding by USDA NIFA. Proposals from FFRDCs must obey NSF budget guidelines and may not include costs already covered by federal funds.
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Opportunity Summary:
The "Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction using Earth System Models" opportunity (NSF Publication 12-522; Funding Opportunity Number 12-522) is a multi-agency research grant program aimed at improving the nations ability to understand and predict climate variability and change on decadal and shorter time scales, especially at regional scales where impacts are most directly felt. The solicitation is framed around the growing recognition that climate-driven disruptions are arriving faster and with broader consequences than expected, including prolonged droughts, more frequent flooding, declines in agricultural and forest productivity, stresses on ocean and permafrost ecosystems, accelerating sea level rise and ice loss, shrinking Arctic sea ice, and shifts in major ocean currents. In response, the program supports research that can strengthen climate prediction and translate that information into practical knowledge for planning and decision-making.
A central theme of the program is building and applying next-generation Earth System Models (ESMs). Rather than focusing narrowly on the atmosphere or ocean alone, these models are expected to represent coupled and interactive processes across the full Earth system. That includes ocean and atmospheric circulation, the water cycle, land ice, biogeochemistry and atmospheric chemistry, ecosystems, and human dimensions such as land use, agriculture and managed forests, and urban environments. The program explicitly encourages interdisciplinary teams, drawing from geosciences, social sciences, agricultural and biological sciences, mathematics and statistics, physics, chemistry, and related fields. Competitive proposals are expected to create real intellectual synergy across disciplines and assemble teams with enough breadth to tackle complex coupled processes without treating any component as an afterthought.
The solicitation lays out long-term goals that define what success looks like for funded projects. One goal is to achieve more comprehensive and reliable predictions of decadal climate variability and change, globally and regionally, by improving scientific understanding of interacting physical, chemical, biological, and human drivers of the climate system. A second goal is to quantify impacts on both natural and human systems and to identify feedback loops, meaning the ways climate change can alter ecosystems, economies, or land management in ways that then feed back into climate. A third goal is to maximize the value of existing observations and model outputs for impact and risk work, including downscaling and upscaling (to connect global simulations with regional or local conditions) and better characterization of uncertainty. A fourth goal is to translate predictions and their uncertainties into information that can credibly support policy and management decisions, particularly those related to adaptation and human interventions.
Within that broad agenda, the agencies highlight several priority research areas. They are looking for work with the potential to dramatically improve predictive capability, including methodological or modeling advances that materially change forecast skill rather than incremental tweaks. They also emphasize prediction and attribution studies, meaning research that not only forecasts changes but also explains the drivers behind observed variability and trends. Another priority is research that links Earth system processes across spatial and temporal scales, for example connecting short-term extremes to longer-term oceanic or cryospheric changes, or connecting local land-use decisions to regional hydroclimate. The program also calls for research that examines climate relationships with human and natural environments from the human perspective, which can include how societies respond to climate signals, how management choices affect outcomes, and how vulnerability or resilience emerges. Finally, there is strong interest in metrics, methods, and tools to test and evaluate climate and climate-impact predictions, including rigorous uncertainty quantification and evaluation frameworks that make model results more transparent and comparable.
From an administrative standpoint, this is a discretionary grant program in the science and technology/research and development category. It was designed as an interagency effort among the National Science Foundation (NSF), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), specifically to combine resources, reduce duplication, and fund the strongest, highest-impact projects aligned with the missions of all three agencies. The program anticipated roughly 12 awards, with an estimated total funding level of about $39 million. Individual awards were expected to be large (award floor about $3 million and ceiling about $5 million), reflecting the scale of modeling, data, and interdisciplinary coordination involved. Cost sharing was not required.
Eligibility is broad across the U.S. research ecosystem and includes accredited U.S. universities and colleges, nonprofit non-academic research organizations (such as independent labs, museums, observatories, and professional societies), and for-profit U.S. organizations (including small businesses with strong R&D or education capacity). Other federal agencies and Federally Funded Research and Development Centers (FFRDCs) could participate, but with important constraints: proposals involving USDA or DOE FFRDCs were only considered for NSF co-funding if they were genuinely collaborative with non-federal institutions, and a non-FFRDC institution had to serve as the lead for certain collaborative structures under NSF rules. DOE laboratory scientists whose projects were selected were expected to be funded by DOE, and USDA research laboratories could lead only if funding would come through USDA NIFA. In all cases, FFRDC budgets needed to follow NSF guidelines and could not charge costs already covered by federal funds.
The solicitation also signals what reviewers are meant to value beyond core science: strong broader impacts. That includes commitments to public access to data and research products that others can reuse, along with meaningful educational, diversity, workforce, or societal benefits. In practical terms, the opportunity is geared toward ambitious, team-based Earth system modeling projects that improve near- to mid-term climate prediction and make the results more usable for assessing impacts, managing risk, and informing adaptation decisions at the scales where people, ecosystems, and infrastructure actually experience climate change.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is the "Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction using Earth System Models" opportunity?
It is a multi-agency research grant opportunity (NSF Publication 12-522; Funding Opportunity Number 12-522) focused on improving the United States' ability to understand and predict climate variability and change on decadal and shorter time scales, with particular emphasis on regional scales where impacts are most directly experienced.
Which agencies are involved in this program?
The program is an interagency effort among the National Science Foundation (NSF), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). It was designed to combine resources, reduce duplication, and fund high-impact projects aligned with all three agencies' missions.
What is the main purpose of this solicitation?
The solicitation supports research intended to strengthen climate prediction and translate predictions (including uncertainties) into practical, credible knowledge that can support planning, risk assessment, and decision-making, especially for adaptation and human interventions at regional scales.
What time scales and geographic scales does the program emphasize?
The emphasis is on decadal and shorter time scales, and on regional prediction, where climate impacts such as drought, flooding, ecosystem stress, agricultural productivity changes, sea level rise, and ice loss are most directly felt.
Why is this program being prioritized now?
The solicitation is framed around the recognition that climate-driven disruptions are arriving faster and with broader consequences than expected, including prolonged droughts, more frequent flooding, declines in agricultural and forest productivity, stresses on ocean and permafrost ecosystems, accelerating sea level rise and ice loss, shrinking Arctic sea ice, and shifts in major ocean currents.
What types of models are central to this program?
Next-generation Earth System Models (ESMs) are central. These models are expected to represent coupled and interactive processes across the Earth system rather than focusing only on the atmosphere or ocean in isolation.
What components and processes are Earth System Models expected to include?
ESMs are expected to represent coupled processes across ocean and atmospheric circulation, the water cycle, land ice, biogeochemistry and atmospheric chemistry, ecosystems, and human dimensions such as land use, agriculture and managed forests, and urban environments.
Is the program looking for interdisciplinary projects?
Yes. The solicitation explicitly encourages interdisciplinary teams, drawing from fields including geosciences, social sciences, agricultural and biological sciences, mathematics and statistics, physics, chemistry, and related areas.
What do reviewers likely mean by "intellectual synergy" across disciplines?
Based on the solicitation language, competitive proposals are expected to integrate disciplines in a way that creates real intellectual synergy, with a team broad enough to address complex coupled processes without treating any major Earth system component (physical, chemical, biological, or human) as an afterthought.
What are the long-term goals for projects funded under this solicitation?
The solicitation describes several long-term goals: (1) more comprehensive and reliable global and regional predictions of decadal climate variability and change by improving understanding of interacting drivers; (2) quantifying impacts on natural and human systems and identifying feedback loops; (3) maximizing the value of existing observations and model outputs for impact and risk work (including downscaling/upscaling and uncertainty characterization); and (4) translating predictions and uncertainties into credible information to support policy and management decisions, especially adaptation and human interventions.
What does the program mean by feedback loops in this context?
Feedback loops refer to ways climate change can alter ecosystems, economies, or land management in ways that then feed back into the climate system.
What are the priority research areas highlighted in the solicitation?
The highlighted priorities include: (1) research with potential to dramatically improve predictive capability (not just incremental tweaks); (2) prediction and attribution studies that forecast changes and explain drivers behind observed variability and trends; (3) research linking Earth system processes across spatial and temporal scales; (4) research examining climate relationships with human and natural environments from the human perspective (including responses, management choices, vulnerability, and resilience); and (5) metrics, methods, and tools to test and evaluate climate and climate-impact predictions, including uncertainty quantification and evaluation frameworks.
Does the program support incremental improvements to existing models?
The solicitation emphasizes work that can "dramatically improve predictive capability" and indicates interest in methodological or modeling advances that materially change forecast skill rather than incremental tweaks.
What are "prediction and attribution" studies as described here?
They are studies that not only forecast climate changes but also explain the drivers behind observed variability and trends.
What does it mean to link Earth system processes across spatial and temporal scales?
Examples described include connecting short-term extremes to longer-term oceanic or cryospheric changes, and connecting local land-use decisions to regional hydroclimate outcomes.
How does the solicitation treat human dimensions of climate?
Human dimensions are explicitly included as part of Earth system representation and as a priority area, including land use, agriculture and managed forests, urban environments, and research that examines climate relationships from the human perspective (such as societal responses, management choices, and vulnerability/resilience).
What role do observations and existing model outputs play in this program?
A stated goal is to maximize the value of existing observations and model outputs for impact and risk work, including connecting global simulations with regional/local conditions through downscaling and upscaling, and improving the characterization of uncertainty.
Does the solicitation mention uncertainty explicitly?
Yes. It calls for better characterization of uncertainty and highlights metrics, methods, and evaluation tools including rigorous uncertainty quantification and evaluation frameworks.
What kind of decision support is the program trying to enable?
The solicitation seeks translation of predictions and their uncertainties into information that can credibly support policy and management decisions, particularly those related to adaptation and human interventions.
What is the grant type and program category?
It is a discretionary grant program in the science and technology/research and development category.
How many awards were anticipated and what was the total funding level?
The program anticipated roughly 12 awards, with an estimated total funding level of about $39 million.
What size awards does the solicitation expect?
Individual awards were expected to be large, with an award floor of about $3 million and a ceiling of about $5 million, reflecting the scale of modeling, data, and interdisciplinary coordination.
Is cost sharing required?
No. The solicitation states that cost sharing was not required.
Who is eligible to apply?
Eligibility includes accredited U.S. universities and colleges, nonprofit non-academic research organizations (such as independent labs, museums, observatories, and professional societies), and for-profit U.S. organizations (including small businesses with strong R&D or education capacity).
Can federal agencies or FFRDCs participate?
Yes, other federal agencies and Federally Funded Research and Development Centers (FFRDCs) could participate, but with important constraints described in the solicitation.
What are the key constraints for proposals involving USDA or DOE FFRDCs?
Proposals involving USDA or DOE FFRDCs were only considered for NSF co-funding if they were genuinely collaborative with non-federal institutions. In addition, under NSF rules for certain collaborative structures, a non-FFRDC institution had to serve as the lead.
How are DOE laboratory scientists funded if a project is selected?
The solicitation indicates that DOE laboratory scientists whose projects were selected were expected to be funded by DOE.
Can USDA research laboratories lead a project?
They could lead only if the funding would come through USDA NIFA, according to the solicitation.
Are there restrictions on FFRDC budgeting?
Yes. FFRDC budgets needed to follow NSF guidelines and could not charge costs already covered by federal funds.
What non-science criteria are reviewers expected to value?
Beyond core science, the solicitation signals strong interest in broader impacts, including commitments to public access to data and research products that others can reuse, and meaningful educational, diversity, workforce, or societal benefits.
What kinds of outcomes is the program aiming for overall?
The opportunity is geared toward ambitious, team-based Earth system modeling projects that improve near- to mid-term climate prediction and make results more usable for assessing impacts, managing risk, and informing adaptation decisions at the scales where people, ecosystems, and infrastructure experience climate change.
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