Opportunity Information: Apply for R10AC80201
Apply for R10AC80201
- The Bureau of Reclamation, Denver Office in the natural resources sector is offering a public funding opportunity titled "Multiple Teleconnection Index Based Prediction of Natural Flow" and is now available to receive applicants.
- Interested and eligible applicants and submit their applications by referencing the CFDA number(s): 15.507 WaterSMART (Sustaining and Manage Americas Resources for Tomorrow).
- This funding opportunity was created on Feb 22, 2010 and posted on Feb 22, 2010.
- Applicants must submit their applications by Mar 4, 2010. (Agency may still review applications by suitable applicants for the remaining/unused allocated funding in 2026.)
- The funding agency has allocated a total of $75,000.00 to eligible and selected applicants.
- Each selected applicant is eligible to receive up to $75,000.00 in funding.
- The number of recipients for this funding is limited to 1 candidate(s).
- Eligible applicants include: Others (see text field entitled Additional Information on Eligibility for clarification).
- This Funding Opportunity Announcement constitutes a Notice of Intent to award to a single source. Applications are not being solicited.
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Opportunity Summary:
The grant opportunity titled "Multiple Teleconnection Index Based Prediction of Natural Flow" is a Bureau of Reclamation (Denver Office) cooperative agreement focused on improving long-lead forecasts of water availability in the western United States. The core problem it targets is that water managers increasingly rely on decision support systems to balance competing demands against limited and highly variable supplies, and those systems work best when they have reliable forecasts far enough in advance to change operations like reservoir releases, storage targets, and delivery schedules. While decades of research have produced reasonably strong seasonal streamflow forecasts around the three-month horizon, this opportunity is aimed at pushing useful prediction skill farther out in time, specifically to about a nine-month lead.
The project’s technical goal is to develop a statistical modeling tool that forecasts streamflow and annual water volumes entering Reclamation storage facilities, with the first forecast issued in November to cover the November-to-July water supply period. The approach centers on teleconnection indices, meaning large-scale climate signals that reflect ocean and atmospheric patterns (for example, sea surface temperature anomalies and atmospheric pressure anomalies) that have established correlations with precipitation and streamflow in the West. The modeling tool is expected to draw on freely available data products that quantify the magnitude of these anomalies, then translate those signals into probabilistic or uncertainty-aware predictions of natural flow and water volumes relevant to Reclamation operations. A major emphasis is reducing uncertainty compared to earlier teleconnection-based forecasting approaches, acknowledging that although prior work by Reclamation, the National Weather Service, and the Natural Resources Conservation Service has shown value in teleconnections, managers still need tighter uncertainty bounds and more dependable performance to make high-stakes operational decisions.
A notable feature of the work plan is its explicit requirement for rigorous cross-validation during model development, with the intent of quantifying forecast uncertainty in a defensible way rather than relying on in-sample performance. Cross-validation is highlighted as a tool to help determine how robust the models are when applied to independent data, which is essential for long-range forecasting where overfitting and spurious correlations can be common. In addition to building and validating the statistical tool, the study is structured into three phases to connect statistical performance with scientific credibility and practical delivery. Phase I builds on prior work at Boise State University and the Bureau of Reclamation and tests whether the developed relationships are likely to be non-random, essentially checking that model skill is not just a statistical artifact. Phase II investigates the physical mechanisms behind the modeled relationships, aiming to explain why certain teleconnection patterns relate to Western hydroclimate outcomes, which can increase confidence in the model and guide better predictor selection. Phase III then uses what was learned in the first two phases to refine the forecasts and produce and disseminate the resulting models and tools for use in water management contexts.
Administratively, this is a discretionary funding opportunity using a cooperative agreement instrument under the Natural Resources activity category and tied to CFDA 15.507 (WaterSMART). The total estimated funding is $75,000, with an award floor and ceiling both set at $75,000, indicating a single fixed-size award. Only one award is expected. There is no cost-sharing or matching requirement. Importantly, the announcement is a Notice of Intent to award to a single source, and applications are not being solicited, meaning it is not an open competition and is instead intended for a predetermined recipient (or a very limited eligibility situation described outside the excerpt). The opportunity was posted and created on February 22, 2010, with a closing date of March 4, 2010, and it was archived on February 22, 2011. The listed contact for access issues is Randale Jackson, Contract Specialist and Grants Officer, reachable by phone at 303-445-2432.
FAQs: Multiple Teleconnection Index Based Prediction of Natural Flow (Bureau of Reclamation - Denver Office)
What is the title of this grant opportunity?
The opportunity is titled "Multiple Teleconnection Index Based Prediction of Natural Flow."
Which agency is offering this opportunity?
The opportunity is offered by the Bureau of Reclamation (Denver Office).
What type of funding instrument is being used?
This is a cooperative agreement.
What activity category does this opportunity fall under?
It is listed under the Natural Resources activity category.
What CFDA program is this associated with?
The opportunity is tied to CFDA 15.507 (WaterSMART).
What problem is this project trying to solve?
It targets the need for more reliable long-lead forecasts of water availability in the western United States, so water managers can better operate decision support systems and adjust reservoir releases, storage targets, and delivery schedules in advance.
What is the main objective of the project?
The technical goal is to develop a statistical modeling tool that forecasts streamflow and annual water volumes entering Reclamation storage facilities, with useful prediction skill extended to about a nine-month lead.
How far in advance is the project aiming to improve forecast skill?
The opportunity is specifically focused on pushing useful prediction skill to about a nine-month lead, beyond the roughly three-month seasonal forecast horizon that has shown reasonably strong performance in prior research.
When is the first forecast expected to be issued, and what period does it cover?
The first forecast is expected to be issued in November, covering the November-to-July water supply period.
What exactly is being forecast?
The tool is intended to forecast streamflow and annual water volumes entering Bureau of Reclamation storage facilities, focusing on natural flow and water volumes relevant to Reclamation operations.
What is the core technical approach described in the opportunity?
The approach centers on using teleconnection indices (large-scale climate signals reflecting ocean and atmospheric patterns) as predictors to produce probabilistic or uncertainty-aware forecasts of natural flow and water volumes.
What are teleconnection indices in the context of this project?
They are data products that quantify large-scale climate anomalies (for example, sea surface temperature anomalies and atmospheric pressure anomalies) that have established correlations with precipitation and streamflow in the western United States.
What kinds of data sources are expected for the predictors?
The modeling tool is expected to draw on freely available data products that quantify the magnitude of relevant ocean and atmospheric anomalies.
Is the forecast expected to include uncertainty or probabilities?
Yes. The opportunity describes translating teleconnection signals into probabilistic or uncertainty-aware predictions, with a major emphasis on defensible uncertainty estimates.
Why is uncertainty reduction emphasized?
While prior teleconnection-based work by Reclamation, the National Weather Service, and the Natural Resources Conservation Service has shown value, the announcement notes that managers need tighter uncertainty bounds and more dependable performance for high-stakes operational decisions.
What does the announcement require regarding model validation?
It explicitly requires rigorous cross-validation during model development to quantify forecast uncertainty in a defensible way and to test robustness on independent data rather than relying on in-sample performance.
Why is cross-validation highlighted as important for this work?
Long-range forecasting can be prone to overfitting and spurious correlations, and cross-validation is described as a way to assess whether models hold up when applied to independent data.
How is the study structured?
The work is structured into three phases that connect statistical performance with scientific credibility and practical delivery: Phase I tests whether relationships are likely non-random, Phase II investigates physical mechanisms behind the relationships, and Phase III refines forecasts and disseminates the resulting models and tools.
What happens in Phase I?
Phase I builds on prior work at Boise State University and the Bureau of Reclamation and tests whether the developed relationships are likely to be non-random, helping confirm that apparent model skill is not just a statistical artifact.
What happens in Phase II?
Phase II investigates the physical mechanisms behind the modeled relationships, aiming to explain why certain teleconnection patterns relate to Western hydroclimate outcomes and to guide better predictor selection.
What happens in Phase III?
Phase III uses results from the first two phases to refine forecasts and to produce and disseminate the resulting models and tools for use in water management contexts.
How much funding is available under this opportunity?
The total estimated funding is $75,000.
What are the award floor and ceiling?
Both the award floor and the award ceiling are $75,000, indicating a single fixed-size award.
How many awards are expected?
Only one award is expected.
Is cost-sharing or matching required?
No. The opportunity states there is no cost-sharing or matching requirement.
Is this an open competitive opportunity where applications are being solicited?
No. The announcement is a Notice of Intent to award to a single source, and it states that applications are not being solicited, meaning it is not an open competition.
What does "Notice of Intent to award to a single source" mean in this context?
Based on the information provided, it indicates the agency intends to make the award to a predetermined recipient (or under a limited eligibility situation referenced outside the excerpt), rather than running a standard open application process.
When was the opportunity posted and created?
It was posted and created on February 22, 2010.
What was the closing date listed for this opportunity?
The closing date was March 4, 2010.
When was this opportunity archived?
It was archived on February 22, 2011.
Who is the listed contact for access issues?
The contact is Randale Jackson, Contract Specialist and Grants Officer.
How can the listed contact be reached?
By phone at 303-445-2432.
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