Predicting the effects of extreme climate events on avian demographics: the role of National Wildlife Refuges in mitigating climate change | Apply Online

Opportunity Summary:

This grant opportunity (Funding Opportunity Number F16AS00322) is a Department of the Interior, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) notice of intent to make a single, non-competitive cooperative agreement award to the University of Wisconsin - Madison. It falls under a discretionary funding program (CFDA 15.678) and is categorized as research and development spanning education, environment, and science and technology. The planned award has an estimated ceiling of $50,000, with one expected award, and it was posted on July 7, 2016 with an original closing date of July 14, 2016. Importantly, the notice states there is no application process because the award is intended to be issued without competition under federal justification authorities (505 DM 2.14.B.2 and 4), meaning the government determined that competing the work is not practical.

The main reason competition is considered impractical is that this effort is described as a continuation of an established, multi-year research collaboration between UW - Madison and the FWS that was previously supported by a large NASA grant running from 2012 through 2016. In other words, the work proposed here is not a brand-new standalone project; it is an extension or follow-on phase of an existing research program where the university team and the Service have already developed data resources, analytical methods, and working relationships. The intent is to maintain continuity, preserve momentum from the earlier NASA-funded period, and build directly on prior findings rather than restart the effort with a new partner.

Scientifically, the project focuses on predicting how extreme climate and weather events affect bird populations, with an emphasis on avian demographics (for example, survival, reproduction, or population growth patterns) and on how National Wildlife Refuges might help buffer or mitigate those effects. The underlying conservation problem is that protected areas are central tools for conserving biodiversity, but their effectiveness can be undermined by forces that operate both inside and outside refuge boundaries. The notice points to several key pressures: changing land cover, intensified land use in surrounding landscapes, and climate change, especially as it shifts the location and quality of suitable climate conditions and alters the habitats wildlife rely on. A core concern is that even well-managed protected areas may become less suitable if the climate conditions that historically supported certain species move elsewhere or if extreme events disrupt habitat and food availability.

A major theme in the description is that bird species do not respond uniformly to extreme weather. The prior work from this collaboration indicated species-specific differences, implying that management strategies need to be tailored rather than assuming a single generalized response across birds. The notice also emphasizes the importance of assessing change at regional scales, because climate effects and extreme events can vary widely across geographies and because refuges function as networks within broader landscapes. This regional framing is meant to help managers anticipate where conditions may improve, deteriorate, or become more variable, and to understand how refuges collectively might serve as stepping stones or refugia as species distributions shift.

Timing and extremes are highlighted as particularly important. The notice points out that the timing of extreme events can be just as consequential as their magnitude, because impacts may be amplified if extremes coincide with sensitive life stages such as migration, nesting, chick rearing, or molting. The practical management implication is that extreme events could temporarily or permanently render some protected areas unsuitable for certain species, which raises questions about how refuge managers can plan for variability, prioritize habitat actions, and coordinate across the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) to maintain conservation outcomes under a changing climate.

Because the award instrument is a cooperative agreement rather than a standard grant, the opportunity is structured around substantial federal involvement in the work. The FWS is expected to play an active role in multiple parts of the project, not merely provide funding. The notice specifies that the Service will handle overall project management; participate in co-analysis of climate and wildlife data; communicate with field stations; synthesize results specifically from an NWRS perspective; serve as a co-author on resulting publications; and cover publication-related page charges. This set of responsibilities signals that the outputs are intended to be directly relevant to on-the-ground refuge decision-making and to be translated into guidance or insight that fits refuge system needs, not only academic conclusions.

In summary, this opportunity is a targeted continuation award to UW - Madison to extend an ongoing line of research on how extreme climate events influence bird population dynamics and what that means for the resilience and management value of National Wildlife Refuges. It is designed to link climate and ecological data analysis with practical refuge-system interpretation, with FWS staff deeply involved in project direction, coordination with field units, and dissemination of results through co-authored publications.

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